Early prediction of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus: Evaluation of Fasting blood Sugar in the first Trimester of Pregnancy in Likasi in The Democratic Republic of the Congo

Author(s): Kabala Tshasuma Hénoch, Cham Lubamba Chamy, Nsambi Bulanda Joseph, Mpoy Wembonyama Charles

Objective: To determine a glycemic threshold in the first trimester of pregnancy predictive of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM) in Likasi City in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Material and Methods: Prospective cohort study carried out in 5 hospital in Likasi. Fasting blood glucose was taken in the first trimester of pregnancy and orally induced hyperglycemia (OGTT) performed between the 24th and 28th weeks with application of the International Association of Diabetes and Pregnancy Study Group (IADPSG) criteria for the diagnosis of GDM. This was non-probability convenience sampling. ROC curve characteristics were performed with STATA 16 software to predict gestational diabetes.

Result: The fasting glycemic threshold in the 1st trimester of pregnancy predictive of GDM was 81.5 mg/dl with an area under the ROC curve of 0.6926 (95% CI: 0.6034 - 0.7818), a sensitivity of 62, 86%, a specificity of 66.67%, and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 89.6%.

Conclusion: A simple and less expensive model based on fasting blood sugar levels could make it possible to early identify and monitor pregnant women at risk of developing GDM.